As we approach month-end and the financial year close, some exporter selling could emerge as dollar earnings are repatriated into India, which may provide temporary relief.
Anindya Banerjee,
Head of Commodity and Currency Research,
Kotak Securities
Mumbai, March 27, 2026: USD/INR has hit a fresh all-time high near 94.80, with Brent crude moving back toward $110 and exerting renewed pressure on the rupee. The currency is also facing headwinds from persistent FPI selling in both debt and equity, with outflows crossing $13 billion this month and potentially matching the pace seen in March 2020. Back then, the shock was COVID-led; this time, it is the West Asia energy shock, which is still disrupting global energy flows, commodity flows, and supply chains.
The key near-term question is how long these bottlenecks persist. As long as energy flows remain constrained, inventories continue to deplete and oil and gas prices are likely to stay firm, keeping pressure on the rupee. If crude remains elevated, we may see further reflexive weakness through speculative shorting, especially via the NDF market, along with importer panic buying and some hesitation from exporters.
That said, as we approach month-end and the financial year close, some exporter selling could emerge as dollar earnings are repatriated into India, which may provide temporary relief. But if the situation in West Asia worsens further into April, USD/INR could move higher still, with 96.50 to 97 coming into view. For now, support is seen around 94 and then 93.50
