WTI crude oil surged above $98/bbl today, in a sharp rebound after a 5% decline yesterday, as geopolitical risks intensified,
Kaynat Chainwala,
AVP Commodity Research,
Kotak Securities
Mumbai, March 17, 2026: COMEX gold and silver erased earlier gains and are currently trading largely flat near $5005/oz and $80/oz respectively as markets assess escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia. While heightened geopolitical risks typically support safe-haven demand, their potentially inflationary nature could reduce the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investor focus has shifted to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee projections, which are expected to provide further clarity on the policy outlook amid mixed U.S. economic data. Gold slipped below the key psychological $5,000 level on Monday, while silver tumbled to $77/oz, reflecting volatility linked to Iran-related tensions. However, weakness in the U.S. dollar helped cushion downside pressures and limited sharper declines. At the same time, resilient Chinese ETF inflows, continued central bank purchases, and rising stagflationary risks remain supportive for gold over the medium term.
WTI crude oil surged above $98/bbl today, in a sharp rebound after a 5% decline yesterday, as geopolitical risks intensified, with Iran stepping up drone attacks on regional energy infrastructure and Donald Trump threatening to expand strikes targeting Iran’s key export hub at Kharg Island, raising fresh concerns over supply disruptions. Production disruptions across key Gulf producers have already tightened the supply outlook, with UAE cuts reportedly deepening to around 1.5 million barrels per day and Kuwait’s disruptions rising to nearly 1.3 million barrels per day. WTI crude oil prices slipped to $92.9/bbl on Monday, driven by easing near-term supply concerns following the U.S. decision to release 86 million barrels from emergency reserves and signals from the International Energy Agency regarding potential additional stockpile deployment. Further pressure came from Iran allowing conditional passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping activity rising to wartime highs, indicating some normalization in flows.
