Unless the index reclaims 23,800–24,000, any recovery is likely to be viewed as a sell-on-rise opportunity, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Dhupesh Dhameja,
Derivatives Research Analyst,
SAMCO Securities
Mumbai, March 12, 2026: Nifty index further extended its decline and closed at 23,639.15, down 312.95 points (-1.24%), as persistent selling pressure kept the index on the back foot.
Nifty cracks key levels amid spike in volatility; bears remain in total control
The index has now breached its immediate support of 23,800 and failed to reclaim it, turning the level into a near-term resistance while continuing to form lower-high structures, indicating that every bounce is attracting fresh selling.
Technically, the market is now hovering near a crucial make-or-break support at 23,500, and a decisive break down below this zone could accelerate downside momentum toward 23,200. The index continues to trade below its 10-DEMA, while momentum indicators remain weak with the RSI slipping below 40 and drifting in oversold territory. Meanwhile, India VIX stabilizing above 20 reflects heightened caution among market participants. On the hourly chart, Nifty remains under pressure as it trades below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, confirming persistent short-term weakness.
In the derivatives segment, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) stands near 0.69, indicating a cautious-to-bearish undertone, with significant call writing at the 24,000 strike, establishing a strong resistance ceiling, while put writers are shifting positions toward 23,500, marking it as the immediate support and make-or-break level. Unless the index reclaims 23,800–24,000, any recovery is likely to be viewed as a sell-on-rise opportunity, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Bears dominate Nifty Bank
Nifty Bank index remained under pressure and closed at 55,100.95, down 634.80 points (-1.14%), hovering near a critical support band after breaching the psychological 55,000 level on an intraday basis but managing to close marginally above it, highlighting the level as a key make-or-break zone. The broader structure continues to display a lower-high formation, indicating that every rebound is attracting fresh selling interest.
Technically, the index is trading below its 10-DEMA, reinforcing the prevailing bearish undertone, while the RSI on both the daily and hourly charts has slipped into oversold territory, suggesting weak momentum despite the possibility of intermittent pullbacks. On the hourly timeframe, the index remains below the 20-EMA, 50-EMA and Supertrend, confirming that the short-term trend continues to favour sellers.
In the derivatives segment, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) stands near 0.79, reflecting a cautious bias, with aggressive call writing at the 56,000 strike forming a strong resistance ceiling, while put writers have shifted positions toward the 55,000 strike, marking it as the immediate support and the market’s key battleground. Unless the index reclaims 56,000 decisively, any recovery is likely to be viewed as a sell-on-rise opportunity, while a decisive break below 55,000 could open the door toward 54,500.
