The Nifty ends 114 points higher, while the Sensex was up by 317 points
Shrikant Chouhan,
Head – Equity Research
Kotak Securities
Mumbai, July 15, 2025: Today, the benchmark indices bounced back sharply. The Nifty ends 114 points higher, while the Sensex was up by 317 points. Among sectors, almost all major sectoral indices traded in positive territory, but the Capital Market index outperformed, rallying 2.10 percent. Technically, after a muted open, the market bounced back sharply and has formed a reversal formation on both intraday and daily charts, which is largely positive.
For short-term traders, the key support zones are 25,100 / 82,300. Above these levels, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, the 20-day SMA at 25,300 / 82,900 would act as a crucial hurdle for the bulls. If the market successfully surpasses the 20-day SMA, it could move up to 25,450–25,500 / 83,300–83,500.
On the flip side, if the levels fall below 25,100 / 82,300, the market could retest the 50-day SMA at 25,000 / 82,000. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the market down to 24,850–24,800 / 81,600–81,500.
Gaurav Garg, Lemonn Markets Desk, adds:
"Indian equity benchmarks snapped a four-day losing streak on Tuesday, buoyed by a sharp decline in domestic inflation, which strengthened hopes of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) later this year.
The Nifty 50 rose 0.45% to close at 25,195.80, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.39% to end at 82,570.91. The rebound comes after the benchmarks collectively lost 1.7% over the previous four sessions.
Broad-based Gains Across Sectors
All 13 major sectoral indices closed in the green, underscoring strong broad-based buying. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperformed, each rising around 1%, reflecting improved risk appetite among investors.
Inflation Eases, Rate Cut Hopes Rise
Investor sentiment was lifted after India’s annual retail inflation fell to 2.10% in June – the lowest in over six years and near the lower end of the RBI’s tolerance band. The continued softening of food prices added to optimism around the central bank's policy stance.
We expect 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in both October and December, and see the RBI maintaining surplus liquidity to support effective transmission of monetary policy.
The short-term outlook for equities remains constructive, backed by low inflation, a healthy monsoon, and the potential for a demand rebound. However, he cautioned that any negative developments on the U.S. tariff front could emerge as a key risk.
Global Watch: U.S. Inflation in Focus
U.S. CPI data could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Any dovish signals from the Fed may offer additional tailwinds to emerging markets like India.
Outlook
With inflation well within the RBI's comfort zone and the global backdrop showing signs of stabilization, the market’s near-term trajectory appears optimistic. However, global cues, especially from the U.S., will remain critical for further direction."
