Union Budget, RBI policy will continue to shape market movements over the next fortnight; FPI flows to date in Jan’25 were negative for all key emerging markets (except Brazil).
Shrikant Chouhan,
Head Equity Research,
Kotak Securities
FinTech BizNews Service
Mumbai, January 24, 2025: FIIs continued to be net cash sellers to the tune of Rs. 66,321.65 crores, to date in Jan’25.
The Q3FY25 earnings season has been broadly in line with our tepid expectations; however, management commentary remained uninspiring, further weighing on sentiments. FPI flows are expected to remain volatile.
FPI flows to date in Jan’25 were negative for all key emerging markets (except Brazil). India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, S.Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, witnessed outflows of US$6,111 mn, US$189 mn, US$519 mn, US$96 mn, US$456 mn, US$1,261 mn, US$283 mn, and US$281 mn, respectively. Brazil witnessed inflows of US$515 mn.
Weekly Market Round Off
Indian equity markets continued its underperformance versus most global markets this week. Broader market remained weak with the midcap and the smallcap indices underperforming the larger peers. Majority of the sectoral indices ended the week in the red with BSE realty index witnessing sharp correction. BSE IT index was an outlier as it performed strongly in a relatively weak market. FII continue to remain net seller of Indian equity, adding pressure on the market performance. Q3FY25 earnings season has largely in line with our subdued expectations. INR appreciated marginally and Brent crude has corrected this week. Multiple events including global events, upcoming Union Budget, RBI policy and ongoing Q3FY25 season will continue to shape market movements over the next fortnight.
Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities, adds as part of weekly market wrap:
The benchmark indices continued to experience selling pressure at higher levels. The Nifty ended 0.49 percent lower, while the Sensex was down by 405 points. Among sectors, the IT index outperformed, rallied 3.57 percent, whereas the Real Estate index lost the most, shed over 9 percent.
Technically, the market is consistently facing selling pressure at higher levels and is holding a lower top formation on daily charts, which is largely negative. We believe that the current market texture is weak, but due to temporary oversold conditions, we could see range-bound activity in the near future.
For the bulls, the levels of 23,350/77000 and 23,450/77300 will act as key resistance areas, while 23,000/75700 and 22,900/75500 could serve as key support zones for traders. If the market surpasses 23,450/77300, it could rally till 23,600-23,650/77800-78000. Conversely, if it falls below 22, 900, /75500 selling pressure may intensify, potentially slipping till 22800-22650/75200-74700
For Bank Nifty, as long as it is trading below 49,000, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, it could fall till 47,500-47,200. Conversely, if it rises above 49,000, it could bounce back to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) or 49,500. Further upside may also continue, which could lift the index up to 50,000.
