Over the past 25 years, the Nifty 50 has demonstrated a clear pattern of recovery as the year progresses.
Jahol Prajapati,
Research Analyst,
SAMCO Securities
Mumbai, April 2, 2026: Despite a sharp -14.54% decline in Q1 2026, triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and global uncertainty, historical data offers a more balanced perspective. Over the past 25 years, the Nifty 50 has demonstrated a clear pattern of recovery as the year progresses. While Q1 has delivered an average return of -1.41% with a relatively lower win rate of 46%, subsequent quarters have consistently outperformed.
Notably, Q2, Q3, and Q4 show progressively stronger averages of 4.26%, 5.08%, and 6.35%, along with improving win rates of 64%, 68%, and 72%, respectively. This suggests that markets tend to absorb early shocks and stabilize over time. Importantly, this dataset captures multiple crises—including global financial shocks, pandemics, and geopolitical events yet the broader trend remains intact. While not a certainty, the probability of positive returns increases meaningfully in the latter part of the year, reinforcing a cautiously optimistic outlook.
