Derivatives Analysis Report

Bears Active Near Resistance Zones 

The index faced rejection near 23,350 and traded largely within the previous day’s range, reflecting indecision at higher levels. Despite this, it managed to defend the 23,000 psychological mark, with the 22,900–23,000 zone emerging as a critical make-or-break support; a breakdown could extend the decline toward 22,700, while holding above may only trigger mild short covering.

Technically, the structure remains weak with a lower-high formation intact, and the unfilled gap resistance at 23,400–23,600 continues to cap upside, suggesting any bounce is likely to face selling pressure.

Momentum indicators remain subdued, with RSI hovering in oversold territory, highlighting a persistent bearish undertone. Additionally, the index is still trading below its short-term moving averages, indicating lack of strength in the ongoing pullback.

From a derivatives perspective, PCR near 0.78 signals a cautious sentiment, with heavy call writing at 23,300–23,500 strikes acting as a ceiling, while Put writers shifting toward 23,000 reinforces it as immediate support. India VIX remains elevated above 22, pointing toward continued volatility.

Overall, until the index sustains above the 23,400–23,600 zone, sell-on-rise remains the preferred strategy, as resistance is likely to attract fresh supply in the near term.

Nifty Bank: Downtrend Remains Intact

Nifty Bank witnessed a volatile session and closed nearly flat at 53,427.05 (-0.04%), giving up its early gains after facing rejection near the 54,300 zone, which aligns with an unfilled gap resistance (54,200–54,600) and continues to act as a strong supply area. Despite the intraday weakness, the index managed to defend the crucial support band of 53,000–52,900, a key demand zone over the past year, making it a make-or-break level; a breakdown below this could accelerate downside toward 52,450, while holding above may only result in limited pullbacks.

Technically, the structure remains weak with a lower-high formation intact and the index trading below key short-term averages, indicating lack of bullish conviction. RSI continues to hover in oversold territory, reflecting persistent bearish momentum despite intermittent bounces. On the hourly chart, the index attempted a recovery but failed to sustain above short-term moving averages, suggesting supply at higher levels.

From a derivatives perspective, PCR near 0.79 highlights a cautious undertone, with strong call writing at 54,000 capping the upside, while Put writers shifting toward 53,000 reinforces it as immediate support. This positioning indicates a fragile range of 53,000–54,000.

With volatility elevated and resistance firmly placed, sell-on-rise remains the preferred strategy, as rallies are likely to attract fresh selling unless the index decisively reclaims the gap resistance zone.

Technical Analysis Report

Nifty erases gains, extends losing streak on weekly charts

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty ended the session at 23,114.50, gaining 0.49%, though more than half of the gains were erased during intraday trade, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.

On the daily chart, Nifty has formed a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow, reflecting clear rejection near the 23,350 zone. The index continues to trade below its key moving averages.

On the weekly timeframe, Nifty has formed a gravestone doji, highlighting rejection from higher levels. This also marks the fourth consecutive week of negative closing.

Momentum indicators continue to remain weak. The RSI is placed near 32, indicating subdued strength, while the MACD remains in negative territory.

India VIX remains elevated at 22.81, suggesting continued volatility in the near term.

Meanwhile, USD-INR has weakened sharply, touching a historic low near 93.78, adding to the cautious undertone in the market.

Unless Nifty reclaims 23,400 on a closing basis, the index may slide further, and a sell-on-rise approach is likely to remain relevant in the near term.

Nifty Bank ended the session at 53,427.05, marginally lower by 0.04%, forming a mild bearish candle. The index traded in a narrow range and continues to hover near the lower end of the recent decline.

On the daily chart, the index is holding close to the lower band of its recent range, reflecting sustained pressure following the sharp fall seen earlier. The recovery lacks strength and remains positioned below key moving averages, keeping the broader direction tilted on the downside.

The RSI is placed near 29, staying close to oversold levels.

On the weekly timeframe, Nifty Bank declined 0.62% and formed a gravestone doji, indicating rejection from higher levels. This also marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline, highlighting the prevailing weakness in the broader trend.

Going ahead, the 54,200–54,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above this range will be required to stabilise the near-term outlook; otherwise, the index recovery may be short-lived.