The double whammy of rising US bond yields and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East would limit the upside for markets
Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, provides insightful updates about the movements in BSE Sensex in the last 3 years and a prediction about the current FY:
Mehul Dani: How has been movements in BSE Sensex from 1st day of Navratri to the Diwali in the last 3 years?
Manish Chowdhury: During the Indian festive period from Navratri to Diwali, the BSE Sensex has consistently delivered positive returns in the range of 2-10% over the last three years. This performance can be attributed to the positive sentiment that arises during this time as a majority of Indians consider the festive period to be auspicious and the best time for new purchases.
How have your customers benefited due to your recommended stocks in the same duration? Please explain.
In the past three festive seasons, we provided nine fundamental stock picks (three each year) with a time horizon of 12 months. Amongst the calls given, eight stocks achieved their price targets with an average return of about 25% from each stock idea. Few of our successful ideas during that period were HPCL, ADF Foods, IRFC, ITD Cementation and Punjab National Bank.
How Sensex, major indices are going to move in the same time frame this year?
During the Navratri and Diwali festive period of 2023, we expect markets to deliver mostly flat to negative returns on major indices such as Sensex and Nifty. We see more pain in the mid and small cap space as they seem to have run ahead of their fundamentals. Additionally, the double whammy of rising US bond yields and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East would limit the upside for markets.
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