Except UK And Germany, Other Global Yields Closed Lower

Sensex ended in red and was dragged down by losses in consumer durable and capital good stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices

Sonal Badhan,

Economist,

Bank of Baroda   

Mumbai, January 31, 2024: IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25. The revision is on account of resilience witnessed in US growth and fiscal support announced in China. US GDP forecast for CY24 has been revised up from 1.5% (Oct’23 projection) to 2.1%. China is expected to clock in 4.6% (4.2% earlier) growth in CY24. Even for India, the Fund now expects FY25 growth at 6.5% versus 6.3% earlier. In US, high frequency data such as JOLTS data reaffirms Fund’s views. Job openings in Jan’24 rose to 9.03mn, up from 8.93mn in Dec’23. Even conference board consumer sentiment index ticked up to 114.8 in Jan’24 (highest since Dec’21) from 108 last month. All eyes are now on Fed’s rate guidance due later today.

• Global indices closed mixed. US indices ended higher as investors’ monitored unexpected rise in the jobs opening (JOLTS report). This signals resilient labour make and gives room to Fed to continue with higher rates. Sensex ended in red and was dragged down by losses in consumer durable and capital good stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.
• Global currencies ended mixed. DXY retreated by 0.2% awaiting Fed’s rate decision and offer guidance of rate trajectory. JPY declined amidst news of BoJ considering ending the negative rates. INR is trading flat today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
• Except UK and Germany, other global yields closed lower. Investors digest mixed bag of Euro Area’s GDP data, and also await Fed’s rate decision, which is due shortly. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps, even as oil prices increased. It is trading even lower at 7.15% today.

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