2024 Election: Absolute Number Voter Turnout So Far show Female Voters outstripping Men...
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh,
Group Chief Economic Adviser,
State Bank of India,
Mumbai, May 20, 2024:While the voter turnout ratio so far is less in 2024 as compared to 2019 in percentage terms, in terms of absolute voters there is a significant increase over already the high base in 2019 ❑ A total of 45.1 crore voters cast their votes in 2024 as compared to 42.6 crore casted their votes in 2019, an increase of 2.5 crore voters as per election commission ❑ As per our provisional analysis (as we have not taken account of all other votes like Postal, Army, etc.), the overall increase is of 1.9 crore voters ❑ Out of this 1.9 crore voters, the female voters increased by 93.6 lakh while male voters increased by 84.7 lakh…thus female voters outstrip men decisively…hence for every additional 100 male voters there are 110 female voters.
State-wise Absolute Change in Number Voters basis 1.9 crore additional votes
State-wise trends indicates: • Karnataka accounted for highest number of increase in voters in 2024 (35.5 lakh), followed by Telangana (31.9 lakh) and Maharashtra (20.0 lakh) • Kerala accounted for most decline in number of voters in 2024 (5.3 lakh), followed by Manipur (3.4 lakh)
PC-wise Absolute Number Voter Turnout reveal increase or status quo in 90% of constituencies relative to 2019
Constituencies-wise trend indicate: • In 181 constituencies, absolute voters casting their votes have increased by more than 50,000 • In 156 constituencies, there is status quo (change is votes is between -50,000 to +50,000) • Only in 36 constituencies, absolute voters declined by more than 50,000 votes • Hence ~90% constituencies is now exhibiting either increase or status quo
6.0% increase in Absolute Number Voter Turnout So Far in first 4 phases…
Top 25 Constituencies where Absolute Number of Voter Increased. In Dhubri (Assam) total voters increased by 7.7 lakh in 2024 as compared to 2019, followed by Srinagar (4.9 lakh) and Chevella (3.6 lakh, Telangana).
Bottom 10 Constituencies where Absolute Number of Voter Declined. Except PCs in Nagaland and Manipur, total voters declined by 2.4 lakh in Kokrajhar (Assam) in 2024 as compared to 2019, followed by Jammu (1.7 lakh) and Guwahati (1.7 lakh, Assam).
Absolute Number Voter have Increased in Reserved Constituencies… Those at bottom of pyramid are voting decisively… A welcome and encouraging trend is visible in our analysis ❑ The increase in absolute votes per constituency in the reserved constituencies are more than the General category constituency.
There are three women centric schemes namely Ujjwala Yojana, Matru Vandana Yojana, and PM Awas Yojana which are having a significant ground level impact in rural areas which may be resulting into increased women participation ❑ As of now, gender wise voter turnout for 373 constituencies has been released ❑ Out of 373 constituencies, 270 constituencies saw increased participation of around 1.2 crore women compared to 2019.
PMAY mild impact on additional female voter turnout in the election
For the States having incremental female voter turnout, it is also found that the PMAY scheme is also impacting female voter turnout with correlation of 0.37.
Voter turnout in Lok Sabha elections is expected to be at 67.5% with further upside push. Based on the current trend of voter turnout, overall voter turnout for this Lok Sabha elections is expected to be at 67.5%, nearly equivalent to 67.7% in FY19 ❑ The same, if voter turnout increases significantly may reach up to 69% and in case it goes downward, may fall up to 66%.
Electors adding in this election with sustained increase but at slower pace… in voters we trust….
There are around 96 crore registered electors of which 65.3 crore are expected to vote in all phases of this election ❑ Out of the 65.3 crore voters, men voters are projected at 34.3 crore while women voters are projected at 31 crore. For the 3 successive elections beginning 2014, 2019 and in 2024 the average incremental voter turn out is a whopping 8 crores… This is 4 times higher than average incremental voter turnout at 2 crores for the 15 elections held before 2014…
Women voters in a race for parity with Men voters
While there is non-fulfilling gap between registered electors and voter turnout but the gap between women and men voters is quickly filling up
Voters structural break in 1996 but women voters structural break in 2014
The 1996 elections happened to be the election wherein structural break not just in the number of registered electors but also in terms of overall voter turnout and women voter turnout ❑ In 2014 structural break with a quantum jump in women voter turnout
