The latest exercise, tracing its roots to 1872, is likely to begin soon providing a range of data mirroring changing perceptions and myriad expectations of a digital-heavy India that has undergone rapid changes in the last decade
FinTech BizNews Service
Mumbai, September 24, 2024: The Economic Department of State Bank of India has released a research report titled “Precursor to census 2024: The fine prints of a changing nation.”
The census (owing its origin to Latin ‘censere' meaning 'to assess or to rate’) has been a keenly watched policy action since
ages that enables policy makers to draft and execute appropriate measures, bringing forth sustainable equity and equality to
varied populace cohorts...the latest exercise, tracing its roots to 1872, is likely to begin soon providing a range of data
mirroring changing perceptions and myriad expectations of a digital-heavy India that has undergone rapid changes in the last
decade.
While the official notification of 2024 census has not yet came, we believe that the exercise is going to start in a
few months and be completed by mid of 2025.
❑ Our research reveals the average annual exponential growth to be on downward trajectory and expected to decline
from 2.20% in 1971 to ~1.00% in 2024, putting the national population somewhere in the range of 138-142 crore in
2024
❑ State-wise incremental share in total population growth reveals the share of southern states, chiefly Tamil Nadu,
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in incremental population growth to decline (vis-à-vis 2011) while northern states, led
by UP and Bihar (~33% share in incremental growth) to drive the growth...North and Eastern regions together to have
52% share in entire population (51% in 2011) while individually east and southern regions show fall in share from a
decade-plus ago numbers
❑ This is supplemented by data regarding babies born (after adjusting infant mortality rate from total live birth) which also
indicate that both North and East India are driving the over all population growth while Southern region shows growth in yearly
babies are declining uninterruptedly
❑ Interestingly, in 2024, the proportion of children in the age group 0-14 years is projected to be 24.3% whereas it was
30.9% in 2011, a continuing reversal of trend that was initiated in 1971. On the other hand, the proportion of elderly
persons is ever increasing since 1951 and is projected to reach 10.7% in 2024, and likely to further increase to 13.1%
in 2031.
In consonance, the working age population (15-59) has also witnessed an increasing trend since 1971 and is
projected to reach 64.4% in 2021, further likely to increase to 65.2% in 2031 census boding well for country’s productivity
as emphasis on factors of productions and tech rails created in the last decade accentuate growth across a multiverse of
opportunities jointly
❑ It is observed from the population pyramids that in 2011, older cohorts was smaller than younger cohorts. Subsequently, with
the decline in fertility the base of the pyramid is narrowing down, and hence the middle silos/tiers would be broadened. Also,
upto to 34 years age bracket, female percentage share in overall population is expected to be higher than male share
in 2024 though it was the opposite in 2011.This clearly vouches for better maternal and neo-natal care
❑ While the median age of India is expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to 28-29 years in 2023/24, it is still one of
the youngest nation in the world (and less than the world’s median age also)...India fares quite well placed on this
parameter with China whose median age now comes to 39.5 years against 34.5 years in 2011.... The demographic
dividends can be huge and a growth multiplier in coming decade for us thus!
❑ The population of elderly India had been increasing steadily since 1961. The faster growth in the elderly population occurred
mainly due to decline in the death rate on account of various health interventions in last few decades
❑ During 2001-2011, more than 27 million elderly population added and the “Report of the Technical Group on Population
Projections for India and States 2011-2036”, there are nearly 138 million elderly persons in India in 2021 comprising of 67
million males and 71 million females.
We have estimated that in 2024, elderly population will cross 150 million (Female: 77 mn will be > Male: 73 mn,), with a growth
of 46 million during 2011-2024. The share of elderly population will be around 10.6% in 2024
❑ As per the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036, State-wise data on elderly
population of 21 major states divulge that Kerala has the maximum proportion of elderly people in its population (16.5%) followed by
Tamil Nadu (13.6%), Himachal Pradesh (13.1%), Punjab (12.6%) and Andhra Pradesh (12.4%) in 2021. On the contrary, their
proportion is least in the States of Bihar (7.7%), followed by Uttar Pradesh (8.1%) and Assam (8.2%)...Medical / tertiary care of states
would need a significant boost to cater to the demands of elder people on lifestyle / medical grounds
❑ The decadal trends indicate a rapidly urbanizing India. According to Census 2011, India's urban population was 31.1% of the
total population which is expected to increase to 35-37% in census 2024. Further, the share of Indian population in urban
agglomerations of more than 1 million has increased from 14.3% in 2014 to 16.6% in 2023
❑ Apart from UTs, Goa and Kerala are highly urbanized while among major states, Tamil Nadu continues to be the most urbanized state
with 54% of the population living in urban areas followed by Maharashtra (48.8%) which leads in absolute number of persons living in
urban areas. Himachal Pradesh (10.3%), followed by Bihar with 12.4%, Assam (15.7%) and Orissa (19.0%) form the other end of the
spectrum.
❑ Due to increase in level of urbanization, the number of million-plus cities are increasing. From merely 18 cities in 1991
census it had increased to 52 in 2011 census. We believe that in 2024 census around 75-80 cities would have million-plus
population having their own challenges.
